Articles

The US economy, while recovering, is now at a pivotal juncture. We are facing both slowing growth and increasing supply-side inflation. The Federal Reserve Board (FED) has to decide between two different paths, maintain its dovish easy money policy in an attempt to keep growth strong or switch to a hawkish path of less stimulus […]

We are on the precipice of two global crises that will have significant bearing over the next decade: the climate crisis and the sovereign debt crisis. According to the most conservative models, the climate crisis will cause historic and unpredictable weather patterns, endangering supply chains and the food supply. The result will be increased food […]

In 1944, the Brenton Woods agreement established the US Dollar as the global reserve currency, with all other currencies pegged to the dollar. That link came undone in 1971 when the US went off the gold standard, which caused all currencies previously tied to the US Dollar to have free-floating exchange rates. The initial result […]

This article is the first in a three-part series on the global macro trends that will likely dominate the business environment over the coming decade. Each part of the series will examine the most significant and interrelated challenges facing businesses recovering from the pandemic: Demographic decline, global supply chain restructuring, climate change, and sovereign debt […]

Out Of The Frying Pan Into The Fire Let’s talk about lumber. During the past year, Covid restrictions kept labor at home and temporarily throttled the production capacity of US and Canada sawmills. But, demand remained strong or grew as people working from home pursued improvement projects. The sawmill downtime depleted wholesale and retail inventories […]

The Road to Recovery  Our forecast from last May outlined the four stages of economic distress that we anticipated would develop as a result of the COVID 19 pandemic. Those four phases were:  1. The Great Pause  2. Cashflow Deterioration  3. Cascade across markets 4. The New Normal  That forecast was based on the history […]

By Dillon Zwick When I first started networking, I thought it was going to be challenging to connect with VPs, Partners, and CEOs and easy to meet with other analysts, associates, and people early in their career – but I found that the exact opposite was the case. Executives of Fortune 1000 companies can be […]

COVID-19 is significantly worse than you probably think it is. To understand how seriously we need to take COVID-19, let’s compare it to some other major disease events like the worst flu season on record and the worst pandemic in US history.   COVID-19 vs The Flu To compare the same time frame of a year […]

There have been over 20 major disease events in recorded history. Each lasted between less than a year to more than a decade, averaging 2-4 years. Those pandemics followed several predictable paths that provide us insight into when the pandemic will end. Status Quo At the time of this writing, an estimated 165,000 Americans have […]

By Dillon Zwick The Small Business Reorganization Act (SBRA) was signed into law in August 2019 and went into effect February 19, 2020. The timing of the new law couldn’t have been better. It has never been easier or cheaper for a small company to restructure through a court approved process.  The SBRA accomplishes the […]

By Dillon Zwick How do you account for panic in a financial model? What do you do when no one can forecast the future with certainty or accuracy? Economic forecasts have never been as divergent as they are now. The major financial institutions project Q2 GDP to range from -9% to -50%. The maps we […]

By Dillon Zwick & Sean Sparks, LPC Executives are not exempt from the panic people feel during times of great uncertainty and duress. We often think of panic expressed by someone erratically pacing back and forth while making hurried and irrational decisions, but panic is much more than this Hollywood portrayal. Panic is defined as […]