The Age of Disruption Part 2: Step Aside Globalization, It’s Time For Near Sourcing
In 1944, the Brenton Woods agreement established the US Dollar as the global reserve currency, with all other currencies pegged to the dollar. That link came undone in 1971 when the US went off the gold standard, which caused all currencies previously tied to the US Dollar to have free-floating exchange rates. The initial result […]
The Age Of Disruption Part 1: I’m Getting Too Old For This Shit
This article is the first in a three-part series on the global macro trends that will likely dominate the business environment over the coming decade. Each part of the series will examine the most significant and interrelated challenges facing businesses recovering from the pandemic: Demographic decline, global supply chain restructuring, climate change, and sovereign debt […]
What The Hell Happened To The Supply Chain?
Out Of The Frying Pan Into The Fire Let’s talk about lumber. During the past year, Covid restrictions kept labor at home and temporarily throttled the production capacity of US and Canada sawmills. But, demand remained strong or grew as people working from home pursued improvement projects. The sawmill downtime depleted wholesale and retail inventories […]
2021 Economic Forecast: A Tale of Two Economies
The Road to Recovery Our forecast from last May outlined the four stages of economic distress that we anticipated would develop as a result of the COVID 19 pandemic. Those four phases were: 1. The Great Pause 2. Cashflow Deterioration 3. Cascade across markets 4. The New Normal That forecast was based on the history […]
6 Reasons Why You Need To Be Networking
By Dillon Zwick When I first started networking, I thought it was going to be challenging to connect with VPs, Partners, and CEOs and easy to meet with other analysts, associates, and people early in their career – but I found that the exact opposite was the case. Executives of Fortune 1000 companies can be […]
How Bad is COVID-19 Really?
COVID-19 is significantly worse than you probably think it is. To understand how seriously we need to take COVID-19, let’s compare it to some other major disease events like the worst flu season on record and the worst pandemic in US history. COVID-19 vs The Flu To compare the same time frame of a year […]
When Will The Pandemic End?
There have been over 20 major disease events in recorded history. Each lasted between less than a year to more than a decade, averaging 2-4 years. Those pandemics followed several predictable paths that provide us insight into when the pandemic will end. Status Quo At the time of this writing, an estimated 165,000 Americans have […]
The SBRA: Saving Small Business
By Dillon Zwick The Small Business Reorganization Act (SBRA) was signed into law in August 2019 and went into effect February 19, 2020. The timing of the new law couldn’t have been better. It has never been easier or cheaper for a small company to restructure through a court approved process. The SBRA accomplishes the […]
The Road to Recovery
By Dillon Zwick How do you account for panic in a financial model? What do you do when no one can forecast the future with certainty or accuracy? Economic forecasts have never been as divergent as they are now. The major financial institutions project Q2 GDP to range from -9% to -50%. The maps we […]
Toilet Paper Panic: Managing Emotions During a Crisis
By Dillon Zwick & Sean Sparks, LPC Executives are not exempt from the panic people feel during times of great uncertainty and duress. We often think of panic expressed by someone erratically pacing back and forth while making hurried and irrational decisions, but panic is much more than this Hollywood portrayal. Panic is defined as […]
The Only Thing We Are Missing Is Actual Zombies
By Dillon Zwick What is happening right now? Once a country breaches a certain threshold, COVID-19 confirmed cases double every 3 days – the US is one of those countries. On average it takes 10 days for someone to seek medical care from the time they were infected. That 10 day lag period is why […]
COVID-19 and the Workplace
By Eden Minucci The impact of Covid-19 on the workplace, like its impact in other areas, is rapidly evolving with simultaneous developments on numerous fronts. State and local governments have passed declarations and ordinances to free up resources and encourage social distancing. On March 18 the first U.S. law directly responding to the Covid-19 pandemic, […]